The NBC Debacle and “All In” Decisions

I have watched NBC’s recent late night TV debacle with a mix of bewilderment and dismay.  A cursory review makes it seem like it all revolves around egos and ratings and local NBC affiliates.  But I think it comes down to poor decision-making by NBC’s leadership, and the end result might end up being remembered in the same way in corporate annals as New Coke  and Ford’s Edsel.

Organizations have to make decisions every day.  Most of them are not “game changers” and the best organizations have a culture and put processes in place to make them fairly routinely.  I believe good decision-making separates the best executives/ business owners / organizations from everyone else.  But every so often , an organization has to make a HUGE decision.  One that impacts the foundation and often, the future of the company.  It may be an enormous opportunity… it may be a response to a competitor… it may be hiring or firing a key employee.   People used to call these “bet the farm” decisions. I like to use a newer analogy for these huge decisions that is borrowed from No Limit Texas Hold ‘em poker … going “all in“. 

At any point in a No Limit Texas Hold ‘em game, a player can declare himself  ”All In”  and bet everything he has on the hand he is playing.  The reward for winning is an immediate doubling of his chip count and often forcing competitors out of the game .  But if the player loses the hand, he is out of the game.  In Texas Hold ‘em, you can’t play safe and hedge your bets forever.  If you want to win the game, you almost always have to go “all in” at some point to drive the other players out.  The comparison isn’t perfect, but I don’t think it’s much different in business. 

Like a lot of companies that face these huge decisions, I think NBC tried to play it safe. They attempted to make both Leno and Conan happy instead of moving forward with one or the other and then dealing with the consequences.  They hedged their bets and now are in a situation where they cannot win.  Hey…. these decisions are HARD, and no one wants to be the CEO that makes the wrong call, but that’s what the job entails, and I think the leadership at NBC didn’t take that challenge.

I would never advocate going “all in” any time the opportunity arises.  Both New Coke and the Edsel were “all in” bets that lost.  The best players / business leaders are the ones who have a keen sense of timing, and can make these decisions weighing the risk/reward of a bold move.  In fact, sometimes the best move is the one you don’t make.   But all too often, organizations let these opportunities pass by, and then wonder why they aren’t growing, or why they always seem behind the competition.  …. Or maybe why they can’t please both of their franchise stars. 

It’s not easy and it’s not always fair, but there will be times when you have done the homework and the timing seems right.  That’s when you have to push all the chips into the middle of the table and go “all in”.